Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $879,876$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,020,073.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,020,073.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,984$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,372.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,372.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,173$ on 2020-10-22

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $140,445$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,619.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(142,619.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,584$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,690.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 146.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,690.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,911$ on 2020-10-22

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,323,630$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,492,334.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,492,334.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $155,900$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{157,825.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 120.4)}}\) (asimptote \(157,825.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $641,337$ on 2020-10-22

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $497,131$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{455,834.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 109.3)}}\) (asimptote \(455,834.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,792$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,810.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 108.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,810.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,574$ on 2020-10-22

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $156,451$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,976.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 143.9)}}\) (asimptote \(177,976.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,500$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,521.3}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 203.1)}}\) (asimptote \(22,521.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,764$ on 2020-10-22

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,053,650$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,519,466.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 198.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,519,466.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,957$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75,960.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 228.8)}}\) (asimptote \(75,960.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $173,839$ on 2020-10-22

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $990,373$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,014,734.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 159.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,014,734.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,637$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,365.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 145.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,365.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66,926$ on 2020-10-22

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,154$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,178.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,178.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.7)}}\) (asimptote \(118.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50$ on 2020-10-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Suriname recovered 95%
Peru recovered 71%
Colombia recovered 60%
Bolivia recovered 59%
Venezuela recovered 56%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $88,416$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,896.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 169.7)}}\) (asimptote \(97,896.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $759$ on 2020-10-22

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{878.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 161.4)}}\) (asimptote \(878.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,373$ on 2020-10-22