Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $879,876$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,020,073.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,020,073.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,984$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,372.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,372.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,173$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $140,445$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,619.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.3)}}\) (asimptote \(142,619.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,584$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,690.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 146.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,690.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,911$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,323,630$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,492,334.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,492,334.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $155,900$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{157,825.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 120.4)}}\) (asimptote \(157,825.3\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $641,337$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $497,131$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{455,834.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 109.3)}}\) (asimptote \(455,834.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,792$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,810.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 108.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,810.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,574$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $156,451$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,976.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 143.9)}}\) (asimptote \(177,976.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,500$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,521.3}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 203.1)}}\) (asimptote \(22,521.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,764$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,053,650$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,519,466.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 198.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,519,466.5\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,957$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75,960.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 228.8)}}\) (asimptote \(75,960.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $173,839$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $990,373$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,014,734.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 159.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,014,734.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,637$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,365.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 145.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,365.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $66,926$ on 2020-10-22
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,154$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,178.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,178.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-22
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.7)}}\) (asimptote \(118.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50$ on 2020-10-22